The ‘Emperor Has No Clothes’
The phrase to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, and its variants, mean: to win a battle, contest, etc., when defeat seemed inevitable. Conversely, the humorous phrase to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and its variants, mean: to be defeated in a battle, contest, etc., when victory seemed inevitable. Clearly, the second best describes what Trump has done during the war with Iran. The MOU described below is an example of poor leadership and the failure to consider stakeholder needs before deciding on actions.
Many people see flaws in Trump’s policies or behavior but remain silent due to fear of backlash. The phrase ‘the emperor has no clothes’ recognizes the challenge of addressing uncomfortable truths in political discussions about Trump. It emphasizes the need for accountability, as some may avoid confronting issues for fear of disrupting the status quo. In its extreme, actions are not taken by those in Congress because they fear being bullied by Trump and incurring his wrath,
What Did the JCPOA Do?
President Obama entered into an agreement with Iran on July 14, 2015, the goal of which was to make it hard for Iran develop nuclear bombs. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear program.
To limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities and enhance global security, the JCPOA achieved the following:
- Reduced Iran’s uranium enrichment levels to below weapons-grade.
- Limited the number of centrifuges Iran could operate.
- Increased transparency through regular inspections by the IAEA.
- Extended the timeline before Iran could develop a nuclear weapon.
- Provided sanctions relief to Iran in exchange for compliance.
- Established a framework for future negotiations on regional security issues.
President Trump scrapped the JCPOA in his first term in office for these key reasons:
- Belief that the agreement was too lenient on Iran regarding nuclear development.
- Concerns over Iran’s regional activities and support for terrorism.
- Desire to negotiate a more comprehensive deal that addresses missile programs and regional influence.
- Pressure from allies and domestic political groups opposing the deal.
- Aiming to reassert U.S. dominance in foreign policy and strengthen sanctions against Iran.
- Criticism that the JCPOA did not effectively prevent Iran from eventually acquiring nuclear weapons.
Summarizing the 14-point “peace” plan.
You can find a fuller discussion of the 14-point plan here. The following is a summary of the key points.
- The MOU calls for a complete ceasefire in the war.
- Both parties pledge to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
- Both parties agree to reach a final agreement in a maximum of 60 days, ending on August, 16, although the deadline could be extended with mutual consent.
- Immediately upon signing the MOU, the U.S. will begin the removal of its 60 naval blockade and complete it within 30 days.
- Upon signing the MOU, Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa.
- The U.S. undertakes with its regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran. The plan will be finalized within 60 days.
- The U.S. undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions.
- Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The two parties have agreed to discuss the disposition of stockpile enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with other provisions in the agreement and under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
- Pending the final deal, both parties agree to maintain the status quo, meaning Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the U.S. will not impose new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.
- The U.S. undertakes upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, that the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
- The U.S. undertakes to make fully available for use of the frozen or restricted funds and assets of Iran upon implementation of the MOU. Both parties will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during negotiation.
- The U. S. and Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.
- After signing the MOU, and subject to the implementation of items # 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this MOU, and continuing implementation of these measures, the U.S. and Iran will begin negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other items.
- The final deal will be endorsed by a binding the UN Security Council.
Criticizing the Plan
Andrew Miller writes for the Center for American Progress that Trump’s war is a war of choice and a war of failure. He suggests it is unconstitutional and unjustified and has not achieved the objectives that the Trump administration set out for the “ill -conceived military intervention.” He claims none of the goals of the war have been achieved in full, providing an analysis of why this is so in this article.
- Total elimination of Iran’s nuclear program.
- Destruction and dismantlement of Iran’s ballistic missile program.
- Eliminating Iran’s navy.
- Rounding up Iran’s regional proxy network (i.e. Hamas, Hezbollah).
- Overthrow the brutal Islamic Republic that has terrorized and bedeviled the U.S. and its partners for nearly 50 years.
Only the third objective has shown some progress in eliminating Iran’s navy, but much less than stated by Trump. In the early days of the war, the U.S. struck over 13,000 targets during the war. Still, leaked U.S. Intelligence Community assessments estimate that Iran retains 70% of its ballistic missile stockpile and 70% of its mobile launchers.
Summing it Up
There is no way to rationalize the war with Iran is a victory. My discussion in this blog provides ample evidence that it was an ill-conceived incursion. It was poorly thought-out, which, I believe, is due to the fact that Congress wasn’t involved in the decision making. Moreover, Trump received ill-advised actions to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
One thing I’ve noticed about Trump is he makes a decision and then deals with the consequences later. The Iran war is just one example. He failed to consider the following before going to war and in the resulting MOU
- What the war would mean for the American public. Obviously, gas prices have gone sky high despite Trump’s statements. He has cited $1.85 gas during his State of the Union address, but averages remain near $3 nationally,
- The MOU calls for the permanent termination of military operations, including in Lebanon. Trump has been saying that the agreement implies that Israel will end its war with Lebanon. The war is with Hezbollah, not the Lebanese government. The failure to include that Iran will stop its supplying of weapons to Hezbollah and Hamas is a grave oversight.
- Iran only commits to a 60-day period of not charging ships for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Can you guess what will happen after the 60 days expire?
- The agreement leaves the Strait of Hormuz solely in the hands of the Iranians. This means the U.S. got nothing in return for ending its naval blockade.
- The MOU does not provide any details about who will contribute to the $300 billion reconstruction and development of Iran. It mentions the U.S. regional partners. What does he mean? Did he actually discuss this with the likes of Oman, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait.
- By agreeing to terminate all sanctions, Trump did what President Obama had done as well. The figure is under dispute, with some saying that we returned as much as $150 billion in a cash payment under Obama while others claim it was much less. Nevertheless, while Trump blames Obama for his deal with Iran, the JCPOA was stronger and better in terms of U.S. interests.
- The U.S. agreed to terminate all sanctions against Iran, including the UN Security Council resolutions. In other words, Trump abandoned the leverage that could make Iran more willing to sign the agreement, and with provisions more favorable to the U.S. The U.S. has imposed sanctions since the 1979 Revolution. Is this indicative of “The Art of the Deal?”
- The agreement to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions is nothing more than an agreement to reach an agreement within 60 days. Trump’s failure to have this included more definitively in the MOU is, arguably, the most glaring shortcoming of the deal.
What Can Be Done Right Now?
It seems like some Republicans in Congress have started to recognize their responsibilities to their constituents and not place party loyalty over the public good. It’s about time. It’s time to recognize that the idiom, The Emperor Has No Clothes, is appropriate for Trump. Regardless of what he believes, Trump is not as powerful or impressive as he claims to be. He often claims something is true when it is not. He governs by using his “bully pulpit” to lie and deceive the public about what is really going on, and the war with Iran is one such example. Hopefully, Congress will start hearings on the war using the MOU as a trigger point. Congress has 60 days to bring some sanity back to a poorly thought-out agreement.
Blog posted by Steven Mintz, PhD, professor emeritus from Cal Poly San Luis Obispo on June 22, 2026. Visit Steve’s website and learn more about his activities.